Assessment of the Reliability of Fault-Tolerant Software: A Bayesian Approach



The paper by Bev Littlewood, Peter Popov, Lorenzo Strigini, was accepted for presentation at the SAFECOMP'2000 in October 2000 in Rotterdam, Holland. The paper appears in the proceedings published in the 'Lecture Notes in Computer Science', No. 1943, ISBN 3-540-41186-0, pp. 294-308, Springer-Verlag. Therefore the access to the full text as a .pdf file is restricted. An abstract from the submission is given below.


Abstract
Fault tolerant systems based on the use of software design diversity may be able to achieve high levels of reliability more cost-effectively than other approaches, such as heroic debugging. Earlier experiments have shown that the reliabilities of multi-version software systems are more reliable than the individual versions. However, it is also clear that the reliability benefits are much worse than would be suggested by naive assumptions of failure independence between the versions. It follows that it is necessary to assess the reliability actually achieved in a fault tolerant system. The difficulty here mainly lies in acquiring knowledge of the degree of dependence between the failures processes of the versions. The paper addresses the problem using Byesian inference. In particular, it considers the problem of choosing a prior distribution to represent the beliefs of an expert assessor. It is shown that this is not easy, and some pitfalls for the unwary are identified.

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Last modified 30 January 2001.